Hello, hello,
After going 5 for 7 in picks at last night's UFC, I should feel a little confident peering back into my pugilistic crystal ball, right? Well, too bad most of that was a parlay, and close only counts in horseshoes.
Big fight tonight for boxing, as the sport looks to recapture some of its lost magic and mystery. Face facts: ever since Tyson eroded into a circus attraction, using sensationalism to mask his emotional problems and one-dimensional game, boxing has largely fallen out of public favor. Not too get too sappy, but I applaud promoters for finally devising an intriguing marquee match-up in Roy Jones, Jr. and John Ruiz.
The irony? That Tyson's antics have once again diverted attention from a match-up that rightfully deserved all the headlines he instead got for a hideous tattoo and sub-literate quotes.
More irony? That as the UFC gains steam in attendance and PPV numbers, slowly rising in the combat sports ranks, boxing is resorting to the kind of David/Goliath promotion that the UFC made its name with. The more things change...
Ok, ok, enough editorializing. Good thing you're not paying by the minute. (I'm reminded of Homer phoning a 1-900 gambling tips hotline and getting a slow drawl of advice: "In...the game...of...Oakland....vs....Dallas...we must...consider...several....things.")
But, hey, in Jones/Ruiz, we do need to consider several things. Chief among them is the fact that this fight poses one of the worst risk factors for any bettor: it is a play without precedence. Meaning that we are unable to look at previous fights featuring Jones against a heavyweight fighter. Or Ruiz against a far smaller, quicker, craftier opponent. The object of handicapping is to educate yourself on what's come before and attempt to create a likely outcome. Kind of like solving a murder that hasn't happened yet. Who says it's easy money?
Before I try and create that outcome, let's look at some key points that help shape it. Warning: this is going to get winded. Skip ahead to the prediction if you must, but I would prefer you understand my reasoning along with it.
1. Roy Jones, Jr. is a terrific boxer.
He makes it look easy. Too easy. So easy that pundits often accuse Roy of fighting bums. Is that the problem? Or is it simply that Roy makes them look like bums?
IMO, it's a combination of the two. It's not Roy's fault that he is so clearly better a fighter than most in his weight division. Call him a victim of circumstance. It's not up to Roy to instill talent in these guys.
But with a record of 47-1 (the "1" not an actual loss, but a DQ), you would think that in fourteen years as a pro, someone, sometime, would've caught him. Someone, somewhere would've put him down. It happened to Tyson. Ali. Holyfield. Everyone but Roy Jones. Even if he was that much better than everyone else, if his competition was credible, he would've gotten caught. It's just the law of averages.
The record says Roy is good. Let the record also show that Roy has not been tested consistently. And one does not amass a 47-1 record if one's competition is consistently legitimate.
2. Roy is bored.
Like I said: it's not Roy's fault that his division is full of part-time boxers. He's 34 now. He knows, as does everyone, what happens when he enters the ring against mediocre competition. Evidence of Roy's boredom became apparent when he began playing semiprofessional basketball, at times even on the day of his fights. Is this something you'd catch other athletes doing? You think Jordan was playing baseball the morning of a Game 7 play? Hell, no. Would he do it if he was set for an afternoon scrimmage against a junior high team for charity ? (Or fighting Glenn Kelly?) Probably.
People talk about Roy's business acumen, and about how he must win this fight since he would never take it if there was a chance he couldn't win. I disagree completely. People do weird, silly, crazy, bold, daring, stupid things when they're bored. Roy is bored. He wants a challenge, just as anyone with his skill set would. If the challenge were there in his class, we wouldn't be discussing this.
3. John Ruiz is a good heavyweight.
Not a bum. Lord knows there are plenty of bums for Jones to fight in heavyweight. If this were about business, Jones would receive accolades from casual fans if he went up and disposed of a fringe heavyweight like Etienne or Mo Harris. People would oo and ahh and say, "Wow, Roy kicked that big guy's ass!"
Jones is really aiming for the sky here. Ruiz gets a bum rap for being knocked silly against Tua years ago. Newsflash: it's what happens when your weight class is full of threats.
Ruiz did something that immediately qualifies him as a respectable boxer, and that was knocking down Evander Holyfield. It was one moment in an otherwise unexceptional career, sure. But it was also a moment that proved lots of things: Ruiz can hit hard. Ruiz can be patient. Ruiz can do what it takes.
The Tale of the Tape:
Roy weighed in at 193 pounds fully clothed, which means he's probably around 187 or so, likely his walking around weight. Ruiz came in at a surprisingly light 226 lbs, and looks far trimmer than in recent appearances. People immediately chastized Ruiz for this, as if the dropped bulk would be his undoing and negate the advantages. Don't be silly: this was a brilliant move on Ruiz's part. By dropping flab, he's now able to speed up his movements, less a lumbering ox and more a bear. Not only are we still talking a 40 lb. weight differential, but be aware that even if Ruiz cut down to 200 lbs. that he is naturally the bigger man. His body is bigger. His bones are bigger. His muscles are bigger.
In MMA, Tito Ortiz cuts from about 218 pounds down to the requisite 205 lbs. to make the light heavyweight class. Even though he and his opponent may technically weigh the same, his body density is just too much for the "natural" lighter guys. When you're big, you're big. Ruiz is big. He has lost none of his advantage in dropping weight: he added mobility.
The Fight:
Let's put it simply. This is Ruiz's fight to lose. He is far bigger than Jones. He has far more experience against tough competition than Jones. There is no way Roy Jones can match the power of a David Tua or Holyfield. It is not physically possible for him to do so.
So what do we know?
We know that Roy Jones does not possess KO power against Ruiz.
We know that Roy Jones has not been tested consistently in his own class.
We know that Ruiz has.
We know that Ruiz is 40 lbs. heavier.
We know that Ruiz can hurt Jones with his punches.
We know that Roy has never had to eat a heavyweight's punch.
We know that Roy is far quicker than Ruiz.
We do not expect Ruiz to stand there and let Roy buzz around him like a fly.
We know that the pressure of a bigger man leaning on you is going to make you tired.
Let me use another analogy. Ruiz has been throwing punches against concrete walls in Holyfield, Tua, Johnson, and many others. Because of the weight difference, hitting Jones will be like hitting a bay of straw. If Ruiz has been benching 300 lbs., he will look impressive benching and controlling 200 lbs.
To me, 'capping this fight comes down to a process of elimination. Roy Jones isn't knocking out John Ruiz. He does not have the physical tools to do so. John Ruiz, on the other hand, is more than capable of KOing Jones, brutally. If Jones is running from him the entire fight, then that certainly doesn't warrant a decision. And if Jones is close enough in range to hit Ruiz in an attempt to score points, then he's close enough for Ruiz to let his own fists fly.
Ask yourself this: do you consider Ruiz to possess more skills than most of Roy's opponents? If so, then admit you'd have doubts of Roy winning if these two were the same size.
In the end, I think we need to avoid making the mistake of betting with our hearts instead of our heads. I say this coming from recent experience: I wanted Tank Abbott to win last night for nostalgic reasons. He was a guy that helped cultivate my interest in MMA. I wanted to see him land bombs on a cocky young fighter. Just to prove that the Old Guard still had it. Just to prove that there was some fire left in him. I made the mistake of 'capping a fight based on my own emotion and what I wanted to happen. You'd be surprised how often that can subliminally influence your own wagers. Think about it.
People want RJJ to win. Hell, I want him to win. Who doesn't want to see technique and skill overcome genetic advantages? Who doesn't want to witness history being made?
But reality is reality. The reality is, Roy did not become Roy based on a stacked weight division. He became Roy by looking good beating up men who did not belong in the ring with him.
If you've read this far, congratulations. You hopefully have a good idea of why I think John Ruiz wins this fight handily. Roy wanted a challenge, and he'll get one, but he will find that his untested skills as a showman will not be effective against a far bigger opponent.
As for the actual outcome, well...that's tougher. My play is on a Ruiz money line, because while I think Ruiz can KO him cold if he's aggressive enough, you also need to consider something very important. If Roy Jones takes him to the distance by fluttering around and avoiding bombs, that's a victory in and of itself. Roy "survived" the heavyweight onslaught and wasn't cleanly beaten. He could then return to his own class without loss of face. Ruiz, on the other hand, gets the win and some respect. A perfect outcome for both men.
Whether that rosy picture influences how both men fight...who can say? We'll find out in a few hours. I'm confident, however, that Ruiz gets his hand raised at the end of the night.
G/l to all.
After going 5 for 7 in picks at last night's UFC, I should feel a little confident peering back into my pugilistic crystal ball, right? Well, too bad most of that was a parlay, and close only counts in horseshoes.
Big fight tonight for boxing, as the sport looks to recapture some of its lost magic and mystery. Face facts: ever since Tyson eroded into a circus attraction, using sensationalism to mask his emotional problems and one-dimensional game, boxing has largely fallen out of public favor. Not too get too sappy, but I applaud promoters for finally devising an intriguing marquee match-up in Roy Jones, Jr. and John Ruiz.
The irony? That Tyson's antics have once again diverted attention from a match-up that rightfully deserved all the headlines he instead got for a hideous tattoo and sub-literate quotes.
More irony? That as the UFC gains steam in attendance and PPV numbers, slowly rising in the combat sports ranks, boxing is resorting to the kind of David/Goliath promotion that the UFC made its name with. The more things change...
Ok, ok, enough editorializing. Good thing you're not paying by the minute. (I'm reminded of Homer phoning a 1-900 gambling tips hotline and getting a slow drawl of advice: "In...the game...of...Oakland....vs....Dallas...we must...consider...several....things.")
But, hey, in Jones/Ruiz, we do need to consider several things. Chief among them is the fact that this fight poses one of the worst risk factors for any bettor: it is a play without precedence. Meaning that we are unable to look at previous fights featuring Jones against a heavyweight fighter. Or Ruiz against a far smaller, quicker, craftier opponent. The object of handicapping is to educate yourself on what's come before and attempt to create a likely outcome. Kind of like solving a murder that hasn't happened yet. Who says it's easy money?
Before I try and create that outcome, let's look at some key points that help shape it. Warning: this is going to get winded. Skip ahead to the prediction if you must, but I would prefer you understand my reasoning along with it.
1. Roy Jones, Jr. is a terrific boxer.
He makes it look easy. Too easy. So easy that pundits often accuse Roy of fighting bums. Is that the problem? Or is it simply that Roy makes them look like bums?
IMO, it's a combination of the two. It's not Roy's fault that he is so clearly better a fighter than most in his weight division. Call him a victim of circumstance. It's not up to Roy to instill talent in these guys.
But with a record of 47-1 (the "1" not an actual loss, but a DQ), you would think that in fourteen years as a pro, someone, sometime, would've caught him. Someone, somewhere would've put him down. It happened to Tyson. Ali. Holyfield. Everyone but Roy Jones. Even if he was that much better than everyone else, if his competition was credible, he would've gotten caught. It's just the law of averages.
The record says Roy is good. Let the record also show that Roy has not been tested consistently. And one does not amass a 47-1 record if one's competition is consistently legitimate.
2. Roy is bored.
Like I said: it's not Roy's fault that his division is full of part-time boxers. He's 34 now. He knows, as does everyone, what happens when he enters the ring against mediocre competition. Evidence of Roy's boredom became apparent when he began playing semiprofessional basketball, at times even on the day of his fights. Is this something you'd catch other athletes doing? You think Jordan was playing baseball the morning of a Game 7 play? Hell, no. Would he do it if he was set for an afternoon scrimmage against a junior high team for charity ? (Or fighting Glenn Kelly?) Probably.
People talk about Roy's business acumen, and about how he must win this fight since he would never take it if there was a chance he couldn't win. I disagree completely. People do weird, silly, crazy, bold, daring, stupid things when they're bored. Roy is bored. He wants a challenge, just as anyone with his skill set would. If the challenge were there in his class, we wouldn't be discussing this.
3. John Ruiz is a good heavyweight.
Not a bum. Lord knows there are plenty of bums for Jones to fight in heavyweight. If this were about business, Jones would receive accolades from casual fans if he went up and disposed of a fringe heavyweight like Etienne or Mo Harris. People would oo and ahh and say, "Wow, Roy kicked that big guy's ass!"
Jones is really aiming for the sky here. Ruiz gets a bum rap for being knocked silly against Tua years ago. Newsflash: it's what happens when your weight class is full of threats.
Ruiz did something that immediately qualifies him as a respectable boxer, and that was knocking down Evander Holyfield. It was one moment in an otherwise unexceptional career, sure. But it was also a moment that proved lots of things: Ruiz can hit hard. Ruiz can be patient. Ruiz can do what it takes.
The Tale of the Tape:
Roy weighed in at 193 pounds fully clothed, which means he's probably around 187 or so, likely his walking around weight. Ruiz came in at a surprisingly light 226 lbs, and looks far trimmer than in recent appearances. People immediately chastized Ruiz for this, as if the dropped bulk would be his undoing and negate the advantages. Don't be silly: this was a brilliant move on Ruiz's part. By dropping flab, he's now able to speed up his movements, less a lumbering ox and more a bear. Not only are we still talking a 40 lb. weight differential, but be aware that even if Ruiz cut down to 200 lbs. that he is naturally the bigger man. His body is bigger. His bones are bigger. His muscles are bigger.
In MMA, Tito Ortiz cuts from about 218 pounds down to the requisite 205 lbs. to make the light heavyweight class. Even though he and his opponent may technically weigh the same, his body density is just too much for the "natural" lighter guys. When you're big, you're big. Ruiz is big. He has lost none of his advantage in dropping weight: he added mobility.
The Fight:
Let's put it simply. This is Ruiz's fight to lose. He is far bigger than Jones. He has far more experience against tough competition than Jones. There is no way Roy Jones can match the power of a David Tua or Holyfield. It is not physically possible for him to do so.
So what do we know?
We know that Roy Jones does not possess KO power against Ruiz.
We know that Roy Jones has not been tested consistently in his own class.
We know that Ruiz has.
We know that Ruiz is 40 lbs. heavier.
We know that Ruiz can hurt Jones with his punches.
We know that Roy has never had to eat a heavyweight's punch.
We know that Roy is far quicker than Ruiz.
We do not expect Ruiz to stand there and let Roy buzz around him like a fly.
We know that the pressure of a bigger man leaning on you is going to make you tired.
Let me use another analogy. Ruiz has been throwing punches against concrete walls in Holyfield, Tua, Johnson, and many others. Because of the weight difference, hitting Jones will be like hitting a bay of straw. If Ruiz has been benching 300 lbs., he will look impressive benching and controlling 200 lbs.
To me, 'capping this fight comes down to a process of elimination. Roy Jones isn't knocking out John Ruiz. He does not have the physical tools to do so. John Ruiz, on the other hand, is more than capable of KOing Jones, brutally. If Jones is running from him the entire fight, then that certainly doesn't warrant a decision. And if Jones is close enough in range to hit Ruiz in an attempt to score points, then he's close enough for Ruiz to let his own fists fly.
Ask yourself this: do you consider Ruiz to possess more skills than most of Roy's opponents? If so, then admit you'd have doubts of Roy winning if these two were the same size.
In the end, I think we need to avoid making the mistake of betting with our hearts instead of our heads. I say this coming from recent experience: I wanted Tank Abbott to win last night for nostalgic reasons. He was a guy that helped cultivate my interest in MMA. I wanted to see him land bombs on a cocky young fighter. Just to prove that the Old Guard still had it. Just to prove that there was some fire left in him. I made the mistake of 'capping a fight based on my own emotion and what I wanted to happen. You'd be surprised how often that can subliminally influence your own wagers. Think about it.
People want RJJ to win. Hell, I want him to win. Who doesn't want to see technique and skill overcome genetic advantages? Who doesn't want to witness history being made?
But reality is reality. The reality is, Roy did not become Roy based on a stacked weight division. He became Roy by looking good beating up men who did not belong in the ring with him.
If you've read this far, congratulations. You hopefully have a good idea of why I think John Ruiz wins this fight handily. Roy wanted a challenge, and he'll get one, but he will find that his untested skills as a showman will not be effective against a far bigger opponent.
As for the actual outcome, well...that's tougher. My play is on a Ruiz money line, because while I think Ruiz can KO him cold if he's aggressive enough, you also need to consider something very important. If Roy Jones takes him to the distance by fluttering around and avoiding bombs, that's a victory in and of itself. Roy "survived" the heavyweight onslaught and wasn't cleanly beaten. He could then return to his own class without loss of face. Ruiz, on the other hand, gets the win and some respect. A perfect outcome for both men.
Whether that rosy picture influences how both men fight...who can say? We'll find out in a few hours. I'm confident, however, that Ruiz gets his hand raised at the end of the night.
G/l to all.
